Systemic challenge; growing threat to Euro-Atlantic security
Data vintage: 2024-01-01 Source: SIPRI / IISS / CRS
Assessment Summary
China is undergoing the most comprehensive military modernisation in its history. The PLA is expanding its nuclear arsenal rapidly, fielding advanced air, naval, and space capabilities, and developing a world-class cyber capability. NATO has identified China as a systemic challenge whose stated ambitions and coercive policies challenge Allied interests.
Key Assessment
China's nuclear arsenal is expanding at an unprecedented pace. The PLA Navy is now the largest by hull count globally. China is closing the capability gap with the US across most conventional domains. It is the pacing challenge for US defence planning.
Threat Indicators
Defence spending growth
▲7.2% YoY (2023)
Nuclear arsenal growth
▲Fastest expansion globally
Naval construction rate
▲~18 major ships/year
Taiwan Strait tension
▲Elevated
Cyber threat activity
▲Very High
Capability Domains
Nuclear / Strategic
Critical
Arsenal expanding rapidly. Estimated 500 warheads as of 2023 (SIPRI). On track for ~1,500 by 2035 per DoD estimates. Developing full triad.
Land Forces
High
World's largest standing army. Significant modernisation underway. Reducing size but increasing quality.
Air Power
High
J-20 stealth fighter operational. J-31 carrier variant in development. Rapidly closing gap with US air power.
Naval
Critical
Largest navy by hull count. Third carrier operational. Type 055 destroyer world-class. Expanding SSBN force.
Cyber / Information
Critical
Extensive state cyber operations (APT40, APT41). Strategic information dominance doctrine. Active global espionage.
A2/AD
Critical
Most sophisticated A2/AD complex in the world. DF-21D/DF-26 carrier-killer missiles. Extensive ISR and long-range strike.
Space
Critical
Second only to US in space assets. Anti-satellite weapons tested. BeiDou navigation system global. Directed energy programs.
PLA doctrine targets the adversary's operational system — not its forces piecemeal. 'Systems destruction warfare' identifies critical network nodes (C2, ISR, logistics) and attacks them simultaneously across all domains before kinetic engagement. The objective is to render opposing forces blind and paralysed. The PLA has specifically trained and equipped for a Taiwan contingency as the primary case.
Key TTPs
▸Joint firepower strike — simultaneous air, missile, cyber, and space attacks on C2/ISR
▸Over-reliance on space/satellite targeting vulnerable to Allied counter-space
▸Anti-ship ballistic missile performance in actual combat conditions unvalidated
A2/AD Approach
The most extensive A2/AD system globally after Russia. Anti-Access: DF-26 (5,000 km) denies carrier operations in the Western Pacific. Area Denial: DF-21D, Type 093B submarines, J-10C/16 fighters inside the First Island Chain. HQ-9B SAMs on Spratly Island artificial islands extend IADF into the SCS.
NATO Planning Implication
China does not directly threaten NATO territory but threatens Allied partners (Taiwan, Japan, Philippines), US carrier operations, and — via Volt Typhoon cyber pre-positioning — NATO critical infrastructure. Beijing is the long-term pacing challenge for the Alliance. Technology competition and economic leverage affect Alliance cohesion.
Procurement & Arms Transfers— open-source reporting · SIPRI · UN Panel of Experts · Reuters · AP
2024-07ReportedDefence Cooperation
Supplying
China–Hungary Military Cooperation and Potential Defence Sales
China→Hungary (EU / NATO member)
Hungary's deepening military and economic ties with China have raised NATO concerns. Reports in 2024 indicated Hungarian discussions on Chinese air defence systems and military communication equipment. While no confirmed procurement agreement has been publicly disclosed, Hungary's construction of a CATL battery gigafactory and BYD assembly plant, alongside close political ties between Orbán and Beijing, have positioned Hungary as a potential entry point for Chinese military technology into the NATO alliance.
Source: Reuters / Politico Europe / European Commission tracking / CRS
2024-06PlannedAircraft Carrier
Internal
Type 003 Fujian Aircraft Carrier — EMALS Catapult Commissioning
China (CSSC Jiangnan Shipyard)→China (PLA Navy)
The Type 003 Fujian — China's third and most advanced aircraft carrier — completed sea trials in 2024 and is expected to achieve initial operational capability in 2025–2026. It is the first non-US aircraft carrier equipped with electromagnetic catapult launch (EALS, equivalent to EMALS), enabling operations of the J-15T carrier fighter with heavier weapons loads. The Fujian represents a step-change in Chinese carrier aviation capability, and DoD assesses a fourth carrier (possibly nuclear-powered) is in the design phase.
Source: US DoD Annual China Military Power Report 2023 / Reuters / CSIS China Power Project
Qty: Ongoing: ~24 AL-31F/AL-41F1 engines per year (est.)
Despite China's stated goal of engine self-sufficiency, Russia continues to supply AL-31F and AL-41F1 turbofan engines for Chinese Su-35 and some J-20 test aircraft. China's domestically developed WS-10C and WS-15 engines have not yet fully replaced Russian imports for high-performance fighters. The dependency is strategically significant: Russian supply constraints or political decisions could affect PLAAF readiness. China is accelerating WS-15 development to eliminate this vulnerability.
Source: IISS Military Balance / Janes Aero-Engines / SIPRI
2023-09DeliveryArmed UAS
Supplying
CH-4 / Wing Loong II Drone Supply Agreement (Saudi Arabia)
China (CAIG / AVIC)→Saudi Arabia (RSAF)
China has supplied Wing Loong II (export: CAIG Wing Loong II) and CH-4B armed UAVs to Saudi Arabia for use in the Yemen conflict. Saudi Arabia is China's largest drone export customer. The Wing Loong II, comparable to the US MQ-9 Reaper in concept, carries precision-guided munitions and has been used by Saudi-led coalition forces against Houthi targets. China has also established a joint drone manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia under Vision 2030 defence cooperation.
China (AVIC / CAC)→Pakistan (PAF)·Est. $1.5–2B (full programme)
Qty: 26 JF-17 Block III aircraft in initial batch; PAF plans 50+ total
Pakistan Air Force received its first batch of 26 JF-17 Thunder Block III multirole fighters in early 2023, featuring an AESA radar, inflight refuelling probe, and compatibility with PL-15 beyond-visual-range missiles. The Block III represents a generational improvement over earlier variants. The JF-17 programme is the most significant active Chinese military aircraft export. Pakistan plans to eventually operate a fleet exceeding 100 aircraft across all blocks.
Serbia received a Chinese FK-3 medium-range air defence system in April 2022, delivered via six PLAAF Y-20 heavy transport aircraft in a politically significant airlift — the first Chinese military transport flight into a European country. The acquisition drew significant EU and NATO concern about Chinese military presence at Europe's borders. The FK-3 provides Serbia with a surface-to-air missile capability superior to Russia's previous Buk-M1 transfers. China positioned the sale as an example of 'comprehensive strategic partnership' with Serbia.
Source: Reuters / European Defence Agency tracking / SIPRI / Serbian MoD statements