Strategic Threat Index

RISK LEVELS:

Critical

High

Moderate

Limited

N/A

Click any cell to see analytical note · Trend: ↑ worsening ↓ improving

Domain / Actor →	🇷🇺Russia	🇨🇳China	🇮🇷Iran	🇰🇵North Korea	🇧🇾Belarus	🇱🇧Hezbollah	🇾🇪Houthis	🇵🇸Hamas
Air Power Combat aircraft, bombers, cruise missile strikes, air superiority threat to NATO airspace	High	High	Limited	Limited	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Limited
Maritime / Naval Surface combatants, submarines, sea denial, naval blockade, undersea infrastructure threat	High	Critical	Moderate	Limited	N/A	Limited	High	Limited
Land / Ground Forces Armoured forces, artillery, infantry — conventional land attack capacity toward NATO territory	Critical	High	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	High	Limited	Moderate
Nuclear / Strategic Nuclear warheads, delivery systems, doctrine — existential and coercive threat to NATO	Critical	High	High	High	High	N/A	N/A	N/A
Ballistic & Cruise Missiles Ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, hypersonics — direct strike threat on NATO territory and forces	Critical	Critical	High	High	High	High	High	Moderate
Cyber & Information Ops State cyber attack capability, disinformation campaigns, election interference, critical infrastructure attack	Critical	Critical	Moderate	High	Moderate	Limited	Limited	Limited
Space & ISR Reconnaissance satellites, GPS jamming, ASAT capability, C2 disruption of NATO space-dependent systems	High	High	Limited	Moderate	Limited	N/A	N/A	N/A
Proxy & Asymmetric Non-state proxy use, irregular warfare, terrorism sponsorship, hybrid operations in NATO member states	High	Moderate	Critical	High	High	Critical	High	Moderate
Air Defence Networks SAM systems, integrated air defence, A2/AD bubbles — ability to contest NATO air operations and deny airspace access	Critical	Critical	High	Moderate	Moderate	Moderate	Limited	Limited
ISR & Electronic Warfare Radar coverage, SIGINT collection, GPS/EW jamming, surveillance access — ability to track and contest NATO forces	Critical	High	High	Moderate	Moderate	Limited	Limited	Limited

AGGREGATE ASSESSMENT:

🇷🇺

Russia

6× Crit4× High

🇨🇳

China

4× Crit5× High

🇮🇷

Iran

1× Crit4× High

🇰🇵

North Korea

4× High

🇧🇾

Belarus

3× High

🇱🇧

Hezbollah

1× Crit2× High

🇾🇪

Houthis

3× High

🇵🇸

Hamas

Sources: IISS Military Balance 2024 · RAND Corporation open reports · RUSI Defence Technology Studies · US Congressional Research Service · CSIS · NATO public assessments · SIPRI · Bellingcat · UK MoD Intelligence Updates. For research and policy analysis only. Does not represent official Alliance assessments or classified intelligence.