1. Strategic Threat IndexClassification: Unclassified / Open SourceResearch Environment
Research — Open Source

CLASSIFICATION: UNCLASSIFIED — HISTORICAL RESEARCH VIEW — IMAGERY DELAY: ≥30 DAYS — NO REAL-TIME TRACKING — NO OPERATIONAL TARGETING.

GEOINT / OSINT Research Archive

Military Base Developments

Satellite imagery analysis · Infrastructure change detection · Open-source geospatial intelligence

6Research Items
16Publications
4Countries
8Domains
Satellite-Based Change Detection

This archive documents and analyses military base infrastructure changes detected through commercial satellite imagery, following the methodology established by open-source intelligence organisations including CSIS AMTI, 38 North, Bellingcat, and Planet Labs partner research programmes.

Multi-Domain Infrastructure Tracking

Research covers the full spectrum of military facility types: airfields and aviation infrastructure, naval bases and shipyards, ballistic missile sites and underground facilities, logistics hubs, and electronic warfare installations — across Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

Research-Grade Analytical Output

Each entry applies structured analytical methodology: multi-temporal imagery comparison, facility function assessment, order-of-battle context, and strategic implication analysis. Assessments follow open-source intelligence standards with appropriate confidence levels.

COUNTRY:22 of 22 items
DOMAIN:
Featured Research6 analytical case studies
Source-Backed Public Case Files
Hardened shelter structures, blast revetments, and dispersal taxiway extensions visible in ESRI World Imagery
51.481°N · 46.211°E
UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE
© Esri, Maxar, Earthstar Geographics, and the GIS User Community · ESRI World Imagery
🇷🇺 RussiaAirfield / AviationActive Monitoring
Engels-2 Strategic Air Base: Post-Strike Force Protection Programme
Hardened shelter construction and survivability enhancement following Ukrainian long-range drone strikes
Saratov Oblast, Russian Federation·2024-03·updated 2024-03-18

Public reporting and released Maxar imagery documented Engels-2 as a major Russian strategic bomber base before and after the December 2022 drone strikes. Russian official statements and international reporting confirmed damage to aircraft and casualties at the Engels/Dyagilevo airfields. This case file tracks the public-source indicators that matter for follow-on monitoring: bomber dispersal, fuel/facility repair, revetment construction, and visible changes in apron usage.

Multi-temporal Satellite AnalysisChange DetectionOpen-Source CorroborationCritical
Hardened shelter structures, blast revetments, and dispersal taxiway extensions visible in ESRI World ImagerySOURCE-BACKED CASE FILE
Silo dome structures, security access roads, and support facilities across a ~47×35km development area
42.327°N · 92.476°E
UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE
© Esri, Maxar, Earthstar Geographics, and the GIS User Community · ESRI World Imagery
🇨🇳 ChinaMissile / StrategicActive Monitoring
Hami ICBM Silo Field: PLA Rocket Force Strategic Expansion
Analysis of large-scale ICBM silo construction in Xinjiang, 2021–2024
Hami Prefecture, Xinjiang, PRC·2024-01·updated 2024-02-10

FAS Nuclear Information Project analysis of Planet commercial satellite imagery identified a second large Chinese ICBM silo field near Hami in July 2021. FAS assessed that the Hami field spans roughly 800 square kilometres and could eventually include about 110 silos. Alongside Yumen and Jilantai, the site is a core public indicator of the rapid expansion of China's silo-based nuclear force posture.

Commercial Satellite AnalysisPattern-of-Life AssessmentPLARF Infrastructure ComparisonCritical
Silo dome structures, security access roads, and support facilities across a ~47×35km development areaSOURCE-BACKED CASE FILE
Southern Hainan coastline showing naval pier extensions, underground tunnel access, and berthing infrastructure
18.212°N · 109.685°E
UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE
© Esri, Maxar, Earthstar Geographics, and the GIS User Community · ESRI World Imagery
🇨🇳 ChinaNaval / MaritimeActive Monitoring
Yulin Naval Base: Submarine Force Infrastructure Expansion
Underground facility access, new berths, and SSBN/SSK presence indicators
Sanya, Hainan Province, PRC·2023-11·updated 2024-01-15

CSIS ChinaPower imagery analysis describes Yulin Navy Base on Hainan as one of China's most important naval facilities and identifies it as a home area for Type 094/Jin-class ballistic missile submarines. Defense News reporting using Maxar imagery documented two new piers under construction in 2022, adding to the existing submarine berthing area and highlighting the base's continuing expansion.

Commercial Satellite AnalysisNaval Order-of-Battle AssessmentInfrastructure ChronologyHigh
Southern Hainan coastline showing naval pier extensions, underground tunnel access, and berthing infrastructureSOURCE-BACKED CASE FILE
Sohae launch complex showing gantry tower, engine test stand, and assembly building in ESRI World Imagery
39.660°N · 124.705°E
UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE
© Esri, Maxar, Earthstar Geographics, and the GIS User Community · ESRI World Imagery
🇰🇵 North KoreaMissile / StrategicActive Monitoring
Sohae Launch Facility: Chronological Infrastructure Assessment 2022–2024
Engine test stand, assembly building expansion, and propellant storage growth
North Pyongan Province, DPRK·2024-02·updated 2024-01-20

38 North imagery analysis documents continuing modernization and expansion at Sohae, including a coastal launch pad, horizontal engine test stand, new road/tunnel connections, assembly-building work, and seaport/jetty construction. The public evidence supports treating Sohae as a persistent launch and launch-support modernization site rather than a dormant facility.

Commercial Satellite AnalysisChronological Site ComparisonFacility Functional AnalysisCritical
Sohae launch complex showing gantry tower, engine test stand, and assembly building in ESRI World ImagerySOURCE-BACKED CASE FILE
Khorramabad/Lorestan terrain showing IRGC-associated missile infrastructure area in ESRI World Imagery (approximate, non-operational view)
33.490°N · 48.350°E
UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE
© Esri, Maxar, Earthstar Geographics, and the GIS User Community · ESRI World Imagery · Coordinates are approximate
🇮🇷 IranUnderground InfrastructurePublished
IRGC Underground Missile City Programme: Surface Indicator Analysis
Hardened facility signatures, ventilation arrays, and access infrastructure
Multiple locations, Islamic Republic of Iran·2023-09

CSIS Missile Threat documented Iranian state-media reporting that the IRGC had established an underground missile base near the Persian Gulf in January 2021, with cruise missiles and launchers visible in state-released images. This case file treats the "missile city" program as a public-source indicator set: tunnel portals, ventilation, hardened access roads, and coastal missile-support infrastructure where independently verifiable.

Surface Indicator AnalysisCommercial Satellite ReviewIRGC Open-Source StatementsCritical
Khorramabad/Lorestan terrain showing IRGC-associated missile infrastructure area in ESRI World Imagery (approximate, non-operational view)SOURCE-BACKED CASE FILE
Fiery Cross Reef artificial island showing 3km runway, hardened shelters, SAM positions, and pier in ESRI World Imagery
9.546°N · 112.888°E
UNCLASSIFIED // OPEN SOURCE
© Esri, Maxar, Earthstar Geographics, and the GIS User Community · ESRI World Imagery
🇨🇳 ChinaMulti-DomainActive Monitoring
Fiery Cross Reef: Operational Tempo and Aviation Presence Analysis
Pattern-of-life assessment of PLA airfield activity in the South China Sea
Spratly Islands, South China Sea·2024-02·updated 2024-03-01

CSIS AMTI's Island Tracker identifies Fiery Cross Reef as a PRC-occupied Spratly feature with 677 acres of reclamation and a long public imagery record. AMTI's later analysis of China's Spratly ISR/EW upgrades reports new antenna arrays, mobile sensing/communications equipment, and radome patterns across the "big three" PRC Spratly outposts, including Fiery Cross, Mischief, and Subi.

Aircraft Type IdentificationPattern-of-Life AnalysisMulti-Temporal ComparisonHigh
Fiery Cross Reef artificial island showing 3km runway, hardened shelters, SAM positions, and pier in ESRI World ImagerySOURCE-BACKED CASE FILE
Public Source Catalogue16 entries
Source Links
Assessment
Case Study
Tracker Update
Methodology Note
Event Brief
2022-12
Tracker Update
🇷🇺 RussiaAirfield / Aviation
Ukraine drone attack hits 2 military bases deep inside Russia

ABC News reported on the December 2022 strikes against Russian strategic bomber bases and included Maxar imagery context for Engels-2. This source anchors the Engels case file in named reporting rather than inferred hardening claims.

Engels-2Maxarstrategic aviationdrone strikeUkraine war
SOURCE: ABC News / Maxar Technologies
HighOpen
2021-07
Assessment
🇨🇳 ChinaMissile / Strategic
China Is Building A Second Nuclear Missile Silo Field

FAS Nuclear Information Project analysis by Matt Korda and Hans Kristensen identified the Hami missile silo field using commercial satellite imagery and assessed that the field could eventually include roughly 110 silos.

PLARFHamiICBMsilo fieldnuclear forces
SOURCE: Federation of American Scientists
CriticalOpen
2024-12
Assessment
🇨🇳 ChinaMissile / Strategic
The 2024 DoD China Military Power Report

FAS summarized the US Department of Defense 2024 China Military Power Report, including the estimate that China had more than 600 nuclear warheads by mid-2024 and continued a rapid nuclear expansion.

DoDChinanuclear warheadsPLARFstrategic forces
SOURCE: Federation of American Scientists / US DoD
CriticalOpen
2021-08
Case Study
🇨🇳 ChinaNaval / Maritime
A Glimpse of Chinese Ballistic Missile Submarines

CSIS analyzed commercial satellite imagery of Type 094/Jin-class SSBNs and Type 093 SSNs at Yulin Navy Base and placed the base in the context of China's sea-based nuclear deterrent.

YulinType 094SSBNPLANChinaPower
SOURCE: CSIS ChinaPower / iDeas Lab
HighOpen
2022-09
Case Study
🇨🇳 ChinaNaval / Maritime
Satellite images reveal Chinese expansion of submarine base

Defense News, using Maxar/Google Earth imagery, reported two new piers under construction at Yulin and noted the base's role in the South Sea Fleet and China's nuclear-powered submarine force.

YulinMaxarsubmarine piersSouth Sea FleetPLAN
SOURCE: Defense News
HighOpen
2023-05
Assessment
🇰🇵 North KoreaMissile / Strategic
Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Site Expansion and Modernization Efforts Make Significant Strides

38 North documented major modernization at Sohae, including horizontal engine test stand work, a coastal launch pad, a probable assembly/storage facility, and related support infrastructure.

Sohae38 NorthSLVengine test standcoastal launch pad
SOURCE: 38 North / Stimson Center
CriticalOpen
2025-03
Tracker Update
🇰🇵 North KoreaLogistics / Sustainment
Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Expansion of Road and Rail Infrastructure Continues

38 North reported continued road, possible rail-bed, assembly-building, VIP observation/control, seaport, and jetty works at Sohae based on March 2025 commercial imagery.

Sohae38 Northroad expansionrailseaport
SOURCE: 38 North / Stimson Center
HighOpen
2023-09
Event Brief
🇰🇵 North KoreaNaval / Maritime
Sinpho South Shipyard: New Submarine Makes Debut, but With Many Questions To Be Answered

38 North used commercial imagery and state-media material to assess the launch of North Korea's Hero Kim Kun Ok / Sinpo-C ballistic missile submarine at Sinpho South Shipyard.

SinphoSinpo-CHero Kim Kun OkSSB38 North
SOURCE: 38 North / Stimson Center
CriticalOpen
2024-05
Case Study
🇰🇵 North KoreaNaval / Maritime
Sinpho South Shipyard: Indications of New Submarine Construction

38 North reported hull components, jigs, and construction activity at Sinpho South Shipyard suggesting a renewed submarine construction campaign likely related to the Sinpo-C class.

Sinphosubmarine constructionMaxarPleiades38 North
SOURCE: 38 North / Stimson Center
CriticalOpen
2022-06
Tracker Update
🇨🇳 ChinaMulti-Domain
Fiery Cross Reef

CSIS AMTI's Island Tracker profile records Fiery Cross Reef's claimant names, PRC occupation, legal-status category, coordinates, 677 acres of reclamation, and public imagery archive.

Fiery CrossAMTIIsland TrackerSpratlysreclamation
SOURCE: CSIS AMTI
HighOpen
2025-12
Assessment
🇨🇳 ChinaISR / Electronic Warfare
China's Spratly ISR and EW Upgrades

CSIS AMTI reported new ISR/EW-related antenna arrays, vehicle groups, circular deployment areas, and radomes across China's big-three Spratly outposts after 2022.

ISREWAMTIFiery CrossMischiefSubi
SOURCE: CSIS AMTI
HighOpen
2021-01
Event Brief
🇮🇷 IranUnderground Infrastructure
Iran Reveals Underground Missile Base

CSIS Missile Threat summarized Iranian state-media reporting that the IRGC had established an underground missile base near the Persian Gulf, with cruise missiles and launchers visible in released images.

IRGCundergroundmissile basePersian GulfCSIS Missile Threat
SOURCE: CSIS Missile Threat
CriticalOpen
2019-05
Assessment
🇮🇷 IranMissile / Strategic
The Iranian Missile Threat

CSIS analysis by Anthony Cordesman cautions that open-source estimates of Iranian missile performance and inventories are often contradictory, while still recognizing Iran's broad and consequential missile development program.

Iranballistic missilescruise missilesuncertaintyCSIS
SOURCE: CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair
HighOpen
2023-02
Assessment
🇨🇳 ChinaNaval / Maritime
Dire Straits: China's Push to Secure Its Energy Interests in the Middle East

CSIS Hidden Reach places China's 2017 Djibouti base in the broader pattern of PRC port, logistics, and overseas military access investments near key maritime chokepoints.

DjiboutiHidden ReachPLAoverseas basingBab al-Mandab
SOURCE: CSIS Hidden Reach
HighOpen
2024-02
Assessment
🇮🇷 IranMissile / Strategic
Analysis of IAEA Iran Verification and Monitoring Report - February 2024

The Institute for Science and International Security analyzed the February 2024 IAEA report, including Iran's continued production of uranium enriched up to 60 percent and activity in advanced centrifuge cascades.

IAEANatanzFordow60 percent HEUcentrifuges
SOURCE: Institute for Science and International Security
CriticalOpen
2024-04
Tracker Update
🌐 Multi-CountryLogistics / Sustainment
Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP)

NATO Allied Land Command describes eFP force posture and notes Germany's 2024 steps to scale the Lithuania battlegroup toward a permanent brigade-sized presence.

NATOeFPLithuaniaRuklaeastern flank
SOURCE: NATO Allied Land Command
HighOpen
Analytical Approach & Methodology
Data Sources
Commercial satellite imagery (Maxar WorldView, Planet Labs, Airbus Pléiades)
Open-source geospatial databases and mapping services
Government and institutional public reporting (DOD, IISS, SIPRI)
Academic research from specialist nonproliferation and defence institutions
Verified open-source photography and ground-level evidence
Analytical Standards
Multi-temporal imagery comparison with minimum two-epoch baseline
Pattern-of-life analysis and facility function characterisation
Infrastructure typology classification (construction phase, operational status)
Confidence levels assigned to each assessment (Low / Medium / High)
Open-source corroboration required for all significant findings
Source Caveat: Entries summarize named public reporting and open-source imagery analysis from organisations such as CSIS AMTI, 38 North, FAS, CSIS Missile Threat, NATO, IAEA-linked analysis, and commercial-imagery-backed media reporting. They are non-official research notes, not classified assessments. Facility status should be independently verified against current imagery before citation. All data is open-source; geospatial assessments reflect archival imagery and are for academic and policy research only.